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A Pumpkin Shortage?
Here's the Scoop
By Gary Lucier
and Suzanne Thornsbury,
Crops Branch, Economic Research Service
Posted on
Tuesday, October 25, 2011 |
How
worried should Charlie Brown be? Is there any truth to
what some are calling the Great Pumpkin Shortage?
After
Hurricane Irene pummeled and soaked the Northeast, the
media began reporting that damage to the pumpkin crop
portended a general shortage of pumpkins for the
Halloween season and beyond. Heavy rains in the spring
caused some farmers to plant later than usual, and some
areas experienced hot, dry weather during the summer
months, further fueling concerns about this year’s
harvest.
The
fact is that it’s not unusual for some areas to produce
a less-than-stellar pumpkin crop, influenced by
unfavorable weather conditions. But pumpkins are grown
in nearly every state, so the supply is widely disbursed
(the top five producing states as of last year are
Illinois, California, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania).
And conditions vary across the country.
While
USDA does not survey the pumpkin crop until the end of
the year, overall it appears that the 2011 pumpkin
season will feature variable quality and higher
wholesale and retail prices. In areas affected by
excessive rain or heat, the supply of pumpkins for jack-o’-lanterns
and other ornamental use will likely be reduced.
Wholesalers, retailers, and organizers of fall festivals
in those areas may need to procure pumpkins from nearby
States or regions where the crop is more plentiful.
This, by the way, is by no means unusual in the pumpkin
market.
Of
course, pumpkins are heavy, so additional transportation
costs combined with overall shorter supplies are likely
to result in higher prices. Wholesale prices for
pumpkins not sold under previously arranged contracts
are higher than last year. We’re seeing higher prices
for jack-o’-lantern type pumpkins and smaller pie-type
pumpkins – also popular at fall festivals – and for the
miniature ornamental varieties.
Ornamental and home processing use accounts for about
three-fourths of the U.S. pumpkin crop, with the other
fourth used for commercial processing (largely canning).
Pumpkin use for all purposes has been trending upward –
reaching an estimated 1.4 billion pounds in 2010, an
average of 4.6 pounds per person. The popularity of
urban pick-your-own pumpkin patches, fall festivals, and
ornamental use in homes and businesses have together
helped maintain demand over the past two decades.
As in
previous years, areas of the country where the pumpkin
crop comes up short can turn to areas of abundance to
satisfy demand. In any case, a “great” pumpkin will
undoubtedly be found on the stoop of all who want one.
(Source: USDA)
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